One of the concerns arising from tariff talks is the possibility of stagflation, or the combination of rising inflation and an economic contraction. But should investors act on this concern with their investments?

Since 1930, the US has seen 12 years when negative GDP growth coincided with positive changes in the consumer price index (CPI). The US stock market’s real return—its return in excess of inflation—was positive in nine out of those 12. That hit rate is close to the frequency of positive real returns across all years between 1930 and 2024, which is 68%.

This is another example demonstrating how concerns over the economy shouldn’t drive portfolio decisions. Predictions about the direction of the economy are continuously forming, but the market itself remains the best predictor of the future. That means market prices are set to levels to deliver positive expected returns even amid concerns over future economic outcomes.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Actual returns may be lower.

Wes Crill, PhD is the Senior Client Solutions Director of Dimensional Fund Advisors.

Thinking about how this applies to you?

If this topic connects to decisions you’re facing, Beacon Hill Private Wealth helps clients evaluate planning, investment, and tax considerations in context and over time.

Request an introductory conversation

Beacon Hill Private Wealth is an independent, fee-only fiduciary investment advisory firm. Founder Tom Geoghegan provides coordinated wealth management that integrates evidence-based investing with tax-aware financial planning, helping professionals and families navigate complex financial decisions over time.

The information provided is educational and general in nature and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, specific investment, tax, or legal advice. Individuals should seek advice from their wealth advisor or other advisors before undertaking actions in response to the matters discussed. No client or prospective should assume the above information serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized individual advice. This reflects our opinions, may contain forward-looking statements, and presents information that may change. Nothing contained in this communication may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions can vary widely over time, and certain market and economic events having a positive impact on performance may not repeat themselves. The charts and accompanying analysis are provided for illustrative purposes only. Investing involves risk, including, but not limited to, loss of principal. Our opinions may change over time due to market conditions and other factors. Numerous representatives may provide investment philosophies, strategies, or market opinions that vary. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. This is prepared using third party sources considered to be reliable; however, accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. The information provided will not be updated any time after the date of publication.

The information in this material is intended for informational use only. It is provided in good faith and without any warranty or representation as to accuracy or completeness. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Dimensional to be reliable, and Dimensional has reasonable grounds to believe that all factual information herein is true as at the date of this material. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Before acting on any information in this document, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. It is the responsibility of any persons wishing to make a purchase to inform themselves of and observe all applicable laws and regulations. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of this material is strictly prohibited. Dimensional accepts no responsibility for loss arising from the use of the information contained herein.

This material is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where the availability of this material is prohibited or would subject Dimensional or its products or services to any registration, licensing, or other such legal requirements within the jurisdiction.

Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Investment products: • Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value

Dimensional Fund Advisors does not have any bank affiliates.