The anticipation building up to elections often brings with it questions about how financial markets will respond. But the outcome of an election is only one of many inputs to the market. Our interactive exhibit examines market and economic data for 100 years of US presidential terms and shows a consistent upward march for US equities regardless of the administration in place. This is an important lesson on the benefits of a long-term investment approach.

Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful.

Notes and Data Sources

This material is in relation to the US market and contains analysis specific to the US.
In US dollars. Stock returns are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Source: S&P data © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Data presented in the growth of $1 chart is hypothetical and assume reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. The chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Growth of wealth for the full sample from January 1, 1926, through December 31, 2025. Growth of wealth for each presidential term starts on the inauguration month of each president up to but not including the inauguration month of a successor. Growth of wealth for Calvin Coolidge's term starts on January 1, 1926, based on the inception date of the S&P 500 Index.
Federal surplus or deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). GDP Growth is annual real GDP Growth, using constant 2012 dollars, as provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Unemployment data not reported prior to April 1929. Federal surplus or deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product data is an annual average.
US Government Presidential and Congressional data obtained from the History, Art & Archives of the United States House of Representatives. US Senate data is from the Art & History records of the United States Senate.
For Herbert Hoover, the federal budget is calculated from 1929 to 1932. Annual real GDP growth is calculated from 1930 to 1932; GDP data not available prior to 1930. For Donald Trump's 2nd term, annual real GDP growth and federal budget are calculated from January 1 through December 31, 2025.

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